TikTok's existence in the United States is hanging by a thread. Failure by its Chinese parent company to sell the app within the next year could result in its prohibition in its largest market.

Such a ban wouldn't just deal a severe blow to China's technological ambitions; it would also deepen the rift between two digital realms centered around the rival economic powerhouses.

Congress passed legislation on Tuesday that could compel ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a nationwide ban. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill into law on Wednesday, with TikTok already indicating its intention to challenge it in court.

Beijing has vehemently opposed the forced sale of TikTok, amending its export control regulations to prevent a sale on national security grounds. This leaves ByteDance with few options to secure TikTok's future in the US, its largest market boasting 170 million users.

"A forced sale of TikTok in the US amounts to a downgrade of the app, as the Chinese government won't approve the sale of its algorithms," says Alex Capri, a research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation and a lecturer at the National University of Singapore’s Business School.

Should ByteDance be unable to relinquish TikTok's algorithm, Beijing could outright block the sale or allow it to proceed without the algorithm, which underpins the app's popularity.

A ban on TikTok or its weakened version would benefit YouTube, Google, Instagram, and other competitors, potentially prompting many users to switch platforms and dealing a significant blow to ByteDance's global aspirations.

"A ban in the US will spark renewed efforts to spread China's digital footprint in Southeast Asia and other mostly developing markets worldwide," adds Capri.

The legislation mandating TikTok's sale was included in a comprehensive foreign aid package aimed at supporting Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Once signed into law, ByteDance will have up to a year to finalize the sale or face an effective platform ban.

Concerns about TikTok's potential national security risks, including data sharing with the Chinese government or content manipulation, have long been voiced by US officials and lawmakers. However, TikTok has refuted these claims.

In general, Chinese companies and apps operating in the US are confronting mounting challenges. The Biden administration is bolstering a new Commerce Department office to enforce provisions of a Trump-era rule aimed at safeguarding US information technology supply chains.

It appears unlikely that Congress would target another Chinese company like TikTok with specific legislation, but the Commerce IT supply chain rule could be wielded in the future to restrict Chinese companies' access to the US market.

While China's Commerce Ministry has pledged to take "necessary measures" to protect its interests, it's unlikely to mount a strong response to the US ban on TikTok. Beijing's primary concern revolves around the technology transfer involved, rather than the social media company itself.